Bellator didn’t go as well as expected we hit a small loss but overall we’re doing well this month. We have UFN 138 left for this month so we’re in a good spot to end up well ahead for October.
Daniel Cormier vs Derrick Lewis
Derrick Lewis is an interesting case, the guy looks absolutely horrible in every bout he’s in, no matter if he’s winning or losing. Yet somehow managed to rack up an impressive win streak. The betting line is very understandable, I just don’t see how on earth Lewis pulls off the upset outside a lucky punch. The guy has questionable takedown defense and even a more questionable gas tank.
As expected the fight ot end inside distance is also priced at extremely low odds.
Verdict: NO Bet. Cormier is too big of a favorite and Lewis doesn’t seem to have reasonable shot to pull off the upset I don’t see what kind of bet you can make here. Neither straight betting or the props are enticing.
Derek Brunson vs Israel Adesanya
Brunson might be the value play of the main card. He’s been underrated here. Problem is I have high expectations of Israel, he seems to be improving every fight but has shown that he can be taken down and Brunson has always shown to be able to take down most opponents. Most people forget this but Brunson was even winning against Yoel Romero before suffering a TKO loss in the third round. Don’t get me wrong if I had to pick the winner without taking into account the betting odds Israel would be my obvious pick here but the odds are so skewed and I don’t actually view Israel as a particularly big favorite here. He’s at best a moderate to small favorite over Brunson. If Brunson was under +200 I wouldn’t touch have touched his line.
I take the under on 2,5 rounds but… the betting odds aren’t bettable.
Verdict: Bet 1u Brunson +290.
Brian Kelleher vs Montel Jackson
I think Kelleher got a little bit overrated after his upset against over-the-hill Barao. If you got Montel Jackson at + odds congrats, you got an excellent price. I would even bet Montel at -150 or better.
Verdict: 1u @ -150 Montel Jackson