After our success with NFL and NBA we finally decided to take on the English premier league! We know most of our readers are American but most people who follow premier league are european so we’ve decided to write out the betting odds in decimal form.
We will also be writing a few articles about using statistics to predict sports, we did one about MMA but there wasn’t much to be said as MMA uses a lot more qualitative reasoning than number crunching to predict outcomes. Soccer, football and basketball are very different beasts though.
Premier League is one of the most difficult betting markets to beat, it has a huge turnover every week and many papers on the subject have concluded that yes you can beat that market it isn’t exactly easy.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
Crystal Palace should be as low as 1.45 according to our model but they are right now hovering around 1.55. I know what you guys are thinking, both teams have performed awfully and too have a team as a pretty big straight up favorite is difficult.
I was also a bit worried by the model here is liking Palace but they are for one underperforming and their losses aren’t as bad as Burnley’s.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
I’m not going to recommend a pick but it’s always fun to discuss extremely one-sided matches. Obviously, you can’t pay the juice and bet on City the risk/reward isn’t enticing, if anything if I had to gamble I would bet on a draw and hoping Bournemouth can make it somewhat competitive.
So what does the model say? Well, who cares about my opinion, we’re number crunchers anyway and model also says draw by a slight margin but as you can see it’s a high variance high reward play. My advice is to take a hard pass.
Leicester vs Watford
Watford to win. I’m suspecting Watford is being slightly undervalued because of their recent performance. Our model spit out Watford with a value rating of 4/10 so go relatively small on it.
Newcastle vs Westham
The only pick the model actually liked here was over 2.5 goals. It’s right now sitting at 2.20 which implies a probability of 45.45%. Basically, the model has concluded this is a flip so the underdog odds on it hitting makes it an obvious value play. Firing a whole unit on it.
For whatever it’s worth, I’m picking Newcastle to win but definitely not betting on it, the odds aren’t attractive enough.