We’ve been crushing UFC so far and finally, we’ve decided to start covering NFL.
We’re putting our model to the test for the public to see. We’re going to give out the value ratings our model spits out. We’ve had very promising results so far and we were quite sceptical of using it early in the season(the first weeks are always tricky to predict) but given the strong results, we’ll start publishing all the picks, worth mentioning. Obviously, don’t follow our model religiously do your own homework as always. We don’t rely completely on the model and we do still look at the games to try to spot things that the model can’t.
Oakland Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers
49ers should be a -4 favourite according to our model and with current line set at -3 we got a value rating of 3/10. Basically, you should either bet 49ers straight or -3 but keep relatively small. A value rating of 3 means there is value in the betting odds but not much.
Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills
I’m a little bit biased since I like the bears so I was quite delighted to see that model actually says Bears by quite the margin. They should only be a +1 underdog. The current line is +3. The value rating came out at 4/10.
Medium sized bet on Bears is warranted. I try to look past my confirmation bias and why the model could be wrong here but I can’t say I see anything why odds are so off.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers
Here comes the first pick the model spit out that I actually disagree with. Our statistical model is saying Buccaneers +7 is a bet. But I actually like the Panthers to cover the spread, I’m only human though.
Verdict: I personally won’t lay any money on this game but as an FYI the model is saying the Buccaneers +7 but I personally disagree so do what you want with that information.
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
And here comes the second pick I disagree with. The model is loving Vikings -7. We should actually bet big on Vikings but man I disagree. I didn’t like Vikings at -7 personally but I’m not going to go against our pick so I’m not betting Lions but I personally will only bet small on Vikings.
Here comes the human element to the game: not all wins are equal and not all losses are equal. I think the model is overvaluing Vikings’ wins but we will soon find out how wrong or right I am.
Verdict: small bet on Vikings.
Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Redskins
Two picks here: Falcons +1.5 and under 47.5. I don’t have much to add here, I’m basically blindly following the picks here, I don’t see a reason why it would be wrong in this instance.
Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints
Here comes the interesting pick of the week if you ask me: Saints -1.5. I’m not saying I disagree I thought it was interesting that the model is leaning so strongly to pick Saints as the winner here. It’s almost a coin flip according to the odds. We got a strong value rating of 7/10 here. Bet big on Saints.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks
And finally here comes I pick I strongly agree with. Chargers +1.5 is an obvious value play. They have played really well this season I was quite surprised to see that the betting market have priced them as the slight underdog.
Well that’s it for week 9 picks guys. Hope we do well. If you want all our free picks don’t forget to sign up to our mailing list, use the form below.