We killed it last time we covered NFL and you might be wondering why on earth we went silent with our NFL picks after our profitable week the reason for that is that we made some tweaks to the model. FYI, we hit 5 out 7 picks.
We’re also back to our regular schedule of posting free picks for every upcoming UFC event with the occasional Bellator and OneFC event thrown in. And starting today, NBA PICKS! (post will be up in one hour)
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
Saints -7 is a pick with a pretty decent value rating of 7/10. I suggest betting at least a unit. I don’t see a good reason why the model would be off here. Cowboys haven’t had the best season overall but they haven’t been too shabby but I was surprised to see that spread was only put at -7/+7 so I was happy to see that the model agreed with me. Now I know that -7 isn’t exactly a small spread to cover but everything is relative, in this instance the Saints should be able to cover it 60%+ probability.
The model also leaned slightly for the over hitting. But only slightly, I would only go as much as 0.5 units on O53 -105.
Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons
-3 Ravens is the pick here. The model continues to like the favorites this week. Not much to say here. The over/under is roughly where it should be.
Chicago Bears vs New York Giants
The model is loving Bears -4 with a high value rating of 8/10. You could go as much as 2 units here. I’m biased as I like the Bears but fingers crossed, I’m blindly following the model and not making my own biased pick here.
Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots
I definitely wanted to find a reason to bet Vikings and I was hoping for at least +5 or better but the line has been set at +4.5. I was hoping the model would spit out Vikings as the pick but unfortunately, the model is agreeing with me and doesn’t like the price as well. In fact, the model would put the line at +4.5/-4.5 exactly where the betting market has set the line, in other words, this is a hard pass. I wanted a reason to fade the Patriots but this week it isn’t going to happen.