We went 3-1 yesterday. Wizards won outright against the Rockets as the model predicted. However, Milwaukee Bucks didn’t perform. Timberwolves covered by a small margin. They beat the Cavs by a mere 7 point margin. The under hit by quite the margin but we suggest going small on it because our model only had a slight lean towards the under hitting. All in all a perfectly decent night.
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
The over and Miami Heat -7. I was also thinking about the over 220 hitting before looking at the numbers and I like that bet more than betting on Heat -7. Heat to cover has a pretty low value rating of 3/10 so I would only go 0.5 units on it but a whole unit on the over hitting.
Both teams have had it rough this season, especially Atlanta Hawks who are not performing at all this season. Though this was to be expected and not to brag even more about our results, our model did predict atlanta hawks’ abysmal performance for most of the season rather well.
Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies
Unlike Heat and Hawks, both Raptors and Grizzlies have been doing well this season. Especially Raptors running over their competition so far, they have gone a whopping 17-4.
Oddly enough the model did spit out the Raptors as the pick but only by a small margin, we got a value rating of 3/10. I was expecting Raptors to be a more obvious value pick here but it apparently isn’t. I’m only firing 0.5 units on Raptors to cover the spread.
Pick: Raptors -4.5
Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets
Here we go: Lakers +4. A little bit higher value rating compared to the two above, a whopping 5/10 value rating, not high but big enough to fire a 1 unit on lakers covering the spread. I thought Nuggets were the clear favorites here so +4 Lakers wouldn’t be enticing but the model is suggesting that this matchup is fairly close so it’s liking the +4 spread.
The over/under is almost perfectly set at 205.5, our model thinks it should be 206 but that’s close enough that you can’t bet on it. Considering you have to pay juice it’s still -EV bet to make so I’ll take a hard pass on the over/under prop.
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