We’re approaching NBA the same way we do with NFL -> statistical modeling for the win. In fact, I would even say NBA is even easier to predict using statistical models than NFL. So far we’ve been very well and we’re going to give out a few free tips every day so you also can take part. You don’t need to pay a dime and not to miss out our free NBA picks please check out betcompetence.com/nba. We’re planning to give out 2-3 NBA tips everyday for the rest of the season.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Minnesota Timberwolves at -6 is the pick here. I’ll be honest as say my initial reaction was that I did think Cavs +6 was the bet before I looked at what the model spit out and I’m going to go against my own gut and put my faith into the numbers.
Cavs performed rather well in their last 2 games and that could be why they’re being a bit overrated on the betting market.
The under is somewhat likely to hit but it wasn’t a strong lean. So I suggest going 0.5u on it.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Charlotte Hornets
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 is the pick and again the model is liking the favorites. Again, I actually disagree with the pick and I’m sounding like a broken record now but there is no real good reason for me to disagree though. Without crunching numbers it “felt” like the line should be -3 to -4 but the model is suggesting that -4.5 is playable and Bucks should be even bigger favorites.
Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards
Quick edit: Forgot to add the last tip for the day in the original write-up but here you go: On paper the Rockets -2.5 seems to be to be the pick, they are strong offensively and Wizards ain’t exactly known for their strong defense and I checked the model and again it decided to spit in my face and say Wizards is the pick. Now, I don’t necessarily disagree with that. On paper I did think that Rockets is the right side but I did also suspect that the betting market is overvaluing Rockets and after going through the numbers I see why Wizards is being liked here. Rockets appear to be better than they are on the surface but either way, I looked at it, this is a very close match and -2.5 is too much credit to give to the Rockets.
Pick: Wizards +2.5.