MMA Live Betting Stratetgy

Live betting MMA has been a gold mine, I personally have a higher ROI on my live bets than my pre-fights bets. The reason why it’s so lucrative is that the bookies are on intense time pressure to release line and the lines can quickly move depending on money coming in so you as a bettor can choose your spots carefully. If you don’t see any value there is no reason to place your bets and you wait for an opportunity to arise. Patience is key.

Bankroll management

Good ole’ bankroll management, a subject that has been talked to death on every damn betting website but I need to repeat, bankroll management is even more important for live betting than pre-fight betting. It’s very easy to get carried away when you’re watching fights live and want to put money down. You think you’re getting good odds and you start breaking bankroll rules because the adrenaline is pumping. Set your bet size limits beforehand to avoid greedy mistakes.

Fading the gasser

The obvious one when you get started with live betting is to fade the early winners who tend to gas. Fighters who win the first round tend to always end up being big favorites on the live odds and for good reason, statistically fighters who win the first round are far more likely to win the whole fight but we’re not looking at the averages here, we’re looking at individuals. If you know a fighter is gassing/fading even though he/she won the first round, that’s where you’ll make money by betting +400 dog who is going to turn the tide in the second or third round.

Backing the winner

Sometimes you clearly see who will win the fight early one. A typical example is can fighter A with his arsenal threaten fighter B? When fighter B shuts down fighter A’s strengths then predicting the outcome becomes a lot easier. A typical example is when you think a fighter can keep it standing but grinded down immediately by someone who isn’t known to gas or the other way around an offensive wrestler who gets shut down completely and picked apart standing.

Obviously, the odds on someone winning early on will be low but it makes sense to back a -300 favorite from time to time, it’s not a given that it’s always the dog you should play live. I’ve cleaned up backing big favorites during live betting because I see there is a very low probability the lesser fighter will pull something out of his hat.

Split decision incoming

Sometimes a fighter will be favored heavily even though the rounds could have gone either way. Sometimes betting on a “robbery” happening can make sense. It’s a lot riskier and you’re essentially gambling on the judges giving the nod to your guy even though it’s close but if the odds are +400 and it’s a tight decision then it’s a no-brainer to bet the underdog and hoping you get the nod.