Whether it’s boxing or MMA it’s never a good sign when a fighter leaves the sport and then comes back 2 years later. Once you had one foot out the door the alarm bells go off: is this a paycheck fighter?
What makes Fury interesting is that he didn’t quit because he started losing or he was too old, he was mentally finished and that’s why he quit.
If we ignore Tyson’s absence from the sport and look at this fight in a vacuum I actually think Fury’s chances are decent and mind you Fury is actually younger than Deontay. They are both heavyweights so neither’s age should be a factor.
Deontay’s implied probability of winning this fight according to the betting odds is around 62%. When hearing about Fury’s depression and suicidal thoughts one begins to wonder where his mental state is at. However, he seems completely fine now when you listen to his recent interviews. He was also on the Joe Rogan podcast(strongly recommend you listen to it, very interesting) he seemed to have defeated his inner demons.
It’s tricky to cap this fight because you have a very talented fighter but potentially mentally not there in Fury and then you have Wilder who has stomped his opponents so far but his record is certainly padded and then you have the small red flag that Ortiz was giving Wilder a lot of trouble before Wilder shut him down. However, given that I outright favour Fury if it’s Fury that fought Klitschko and he hasn’t really shown his decline in the ring yet so it’s hard not to bet on him at underdog odds, I can’t see a convincing argument why he’s the underdog other than his abstinence from boxing.
However, given the above, it’s so difficult to make a confident pick because you have variables that makes it hard to say fighter X will win because of Y. Therefore I’m playing it somewhat small, 1 unit bet on Fury.
Verdict: 1 unit @ Fury +150