I’m big on blockchain and cryptocurrencies and an obvious use case I see for blockchain is decentralized prediction markets. However, there is no decentralized platform that can at the moment compete with traditional sportsbooks.
Take Augur, for example, they actually have a functioning platform, you can place bets and create markets for any event you think of(unless it’s unethical). Yet almost nobody uses augur. There aren’t even 100 liquid markets and the total money at stake on the whole network is $1.1million. The volume is a joke in other words.
Another problem I see with augur right is now that the user interface is just horrible. Looks more like an old trading platform screen. Casual bettors are never going to use it. Without casuals you won’t get volume and without volume, you don’t even get the sharps, so augur suffers right now from the catch 22 moment – they need users to get more users but how do they get users to begin with?
Then you have other upcoming platforms such as gnosis, wagerr, decentbet, and about 50 other ones. So I think even though augur isn’t a fine tuned platform yet, there is so much competition and such a big market to tap into it’s only a question of when not if prediction market will play a major role and big a serious competitor to traditional sportsbooks.
You might be wondering as a crypto investor, which currency you should buy to tap into the growth decentralized prediction markets.
Augur with all its faults does have a head start and at least a tiny user base, the other platforms are still in the development stage. However, $150 million market cap for a platform that doesn’t even have 100 active users a day is a very generous valuation considering that will be tens of other competitors coming soon to the market.
As someone who invests based on fundamentals, it’s very difficult to see a compelling reason to buy REP tokens. If you’re interested in augur I would at least wait and see if they clean up their product and interface before making any serious investments.
The other ones are even more speculative but at least they have significantly smaller market caps. Decentbet, for example, doesn’t even have a $8MM market cap but on the other hand, they haven’t released anything functioning yet so you’re still gambling based on future promises.
My final conclusion: wait & see. Sure you might miss out on some big gains by waiting on the sidelines but sometimes the best you can do with the data you have is to do nothing at all. The fog will clear up as we see more and more decentralized platforms come to the market and adoption increases.