Before I address how likely it is that Trump will win again 2020 I want back for a short moment to 2016 and why so many got their predictions wrong.
No, I’m not just talking about the biased voters but even betting companies and casinos got it severely wrong.
There is something known as the Bradley effect, where politically incorrect candidates tend to be underrated by pollsters. Surprise surprise, people aren’t quick to share their “politically incorrect” opinions to a pollster.
This effect isn’t unique to the US, it’s something that has been observed all over the western world. When a candidate or political party emerges that have “unacceptable” ideas according to the established media some people become ashamed for admitting that they support said candidate or party.
However, pollsters actually didn’t get that severely wrong. Vegas was actually significantly more off than the pollsters. FiveThirtyEight who analyses all the major polls that are done for the election gave Trump a whopping 29% chance to pull of the upset. That’s more than 1 in 4, it’s almost 1 in 3. So they weren’t saying that Trump had a snowball chance in hell of winning, not even close.
Most bookies gave Trump 5-1 to win the election, which is an implied probability of 16.67% chance of winning. Basically, even if you completely ignored the Bradley effect and went by the 29% figure given by FiveThirtyEight you could still make a very strong case for betting on Trump. In fact, betting on Trump might have been the most obvious value play I saw during the entire 2016(FYI I had 5 units on Trump to win).
However, as we know the media reported the election as a sealed deal. They basically took something that was semi-true: Hillary was significantly ahead in polls but they exaggerated massively by saying Trump had no chance. I’m not here to spread conspiracies, I’m just saying what I observed. I have no idea what anyone’s intention is, I’m only here to speculate on future events so I can make money betting.
Enough history and enough bragging from my part,
What happens in 2020 then?
According to the bookies, Trump has a slightly less than a 50-50 shot of winning a second term. Statistically speaking, one-termers aren’t common, so that’s one strong advantage Trump has going into the second round. Yes, he has a low approval rating but the brand equity the dude has of already being the president and won against all odds is not to be underestimated. Another thing going for Trump is the fact that his voters are loyal, once people made the jump to support Trump, they don’t abandon. Just look at how immune he is to scandals.
Is the betting odds off by a big margin? Not quite. They’re definitely bettable but we’re still far from the election and a lot of things could still happen but I wouldn’t fault anybody that wants to bet Trump at +130. I will write a part 2 to this article once we get closer to the election, we still have a lot to see.