We have 2 Bellator cards on our hands this weekend and they do look quite fun from a fan’s perspective. They’re also not bad from a betting perspective, I see a few decent plays on the main cards alone. By the way, if you don’t want to miss out on any of our free tips, don’t forget to follow us on twitter and subscribe to our mailing list.
Matt Mitrione vs Ryan Bader
The first obvious value play I see on the card is Mitrione at +240. Mitrione has the obvious size advantage(but not a massive one, Bader has always been a large LHW) but Bader is more skilled on paper. Mitrione has basically always been a heavy hitting HW with not much else going for him.
That said, I’m a bit surprised that he’s such a big dog against Bader. Bader has shown in the past to have a somewhat suspect chin.
Verdict: Bet 1u @ Matt Mitrione
Roy Nelson vs Sergei Kharitonov
There is no way around it, you have to cap Roy Nelson as the clear favorite but this one is a question mark. Both fighters are undoubtedly shot and at the very end of their careers that said Kharitonov went over the hill long before Nelson. Both guys like to brawl and even though I’m favoring Nelson here, I can’t justify a play on him at -280, that’s a hell of a lot of juice to pay given the circumstances if anything I’m more inclined to play on Kharitonov(though definitely not Kharitonov to be clear).
Verdict: NO BET. If Nelson’s line improves that could warrant a bet but that’s highly unlikely, the time to bet Nelson was his opener but as of now, nyet nyet nyet. Kharitonov could be worth a stab if the market keeps pushing his odds higher.
Chael Sonnen vs Fedor Emelianenko
I never thought we would see the day Sonnen fights Fedor. The world has changed. Anyone remember the Fedor vs Lesnar rumors? Hah, feels like yesterday people talked about that potential super fight that never happened.
If Fedor wasn’t completely shot it would be difficult not to cap him as a -1000 favorite against Sonnen but today? Still, a clear favorite no doubt. I think Sonnen’s line actually warrants a bet. However, I’m not saying this is a lock by any stretch of the imagination but Sonnen does play into Fedor’s strengths and Fedor actually has the size advantage for one. I think Fedor is so damn shot that you can actually risk a small bet on Sonnen.
Update: Due to a bad formulation, I felt this article needed a revision my pick is actually Sonnen not Fedor, but play him small.
Verdict: 0.5u @ Chael Sonnen
Benson Henderson vs Saad Awad
I’m don’t really any clear path to victory for Saad with the exception of a lucky punch landing but Benson isn’t the same guy he used to be. Benson is a tough guy to catch even though he might not be as good as once was. This is a spot where I’m actually comfortable laying the juice but at -420? Yikes. I think the line has gotten so much out of hand that there is actually a little bit of value in Saad’s odds.
Verdict: 0.2u @ Saad Awad. Yes, it’s an extremely small play but I wouldn’t go higher than that. I think Saad have a little bit of value but it’s hard to gauge how much and I think the edge here is so small that I’m only recommending a fraction of a unit.